Explanation
Starting at the , the have a greater chance to score a touchdown () from the line of scrimmage than do the () should a turnover on downs occur. However, it is still more likely than not that the will be able to get into field goal range ( at the ). This changes past the , when those field goal odds become unfavorable—thus making it less likely than not that the will score any points even if the turn the ball over on downs.
The offense averages yards per play, while the defense averages yards per play—for an aggregate yards per play of . Therefore, regardless of field position the should only consider going for it on 4th and or shorter.
